UK-based oil and gas major BP expects the global energy mix to reach the most diverse point the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter.
In its 2018 Energy Outlook the company anticipates renewables to be by far the fastest-growing fuel source, increasing five-fold and providing around 14 pct of primary energy by 2040.
“We are seeing growing competition between different energy sources, driven by abundant energy supplies, and continued improvements in energy efficiency. As the world learns to do more with less, demand for energy will be met by the most diverse fuels mix we have ever seen,” Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, said.
Demand for oil is anticipated to grow over much of the period covered by the forecast before plateauing in the later years.
The growth in supply is driven by US tight oil in the early part of the outlook, with OPEC taking over from the late 2020s as Middle East producers adopt a strategy of growing market share.
It is projected that the transport sector will dominate global oil demand, accounting for more than half of the overall growth. Most of the growth in energy demand from transport comes from non-road (largely air, marine, and rail) and trucks, with small increases from cars and motorbikes.
After 2030, the main source of growth in the demand for oil is from non-combusted uses, particularly as a feedstock for petrochemicals.
Natural gas demand is expected to overtake coal as the second largest source of energy. By 2040, the US will account for almost one quarter of global gas production, and global LNG supplies will more than double, BP forecasts. LNG volumes are projected to overtake inter-regional pipeline shipments in the early 2020s.
Global coal consumption is expected to flatline as Chinese coal consumption plateaus. Based on BP’s outlook, China will remain the largest market for coal, accounting for 40 pct of global coal demand to 2040.